Russia Keeps Rolling Forward While Iran Contemplates Retaliation Against Israel
Despite my hope that Iran would “take a win” in repelling most of the Israeli cruise missiles launched on Saturday against Iranian military targets, it appears that Iran will hit back in the near future. I base that conclusion on these two recent statements from Iranian senior officials:
Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, Deputy Coordinator of the IRGC:
“In the coming days, you will witness another crushing blow to the Zionist regime.”
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has told a news conference Iran is using “all available means to respond firmly and effectively” to Israeli strikes over the weekend.
I want to take you back a week in time. Do you recall what Israeli Minister of Defense said before the Israeli attack?
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told Air Force crews on Wednesday that after striking in Iran, the world will understand Israel’s might and its enemies will learn a lesson, according to a video and an X post published by his office. . . .
“After we attack in Iran, they will understand in Israel and elsewhere what your preparations have included,” Gallant told the crews in the video, which his office said was filmed at Hatzerim Air Base.
On X, Gallant added: “In my conversation with them I emphasized – after we attack Iran, everyone will understand your might, the process of preparation and training – any enemy that tries to harm the State of Israel will pay a heavy price.”
When you compare Gallant’s bold promise with what actually happened, a reasonable person would conclude that Iran’s air defense stymied Israel’s military objective. If anything, the world now understands that Israel’s bark is bigger than its bite when it is fighting a nation that has a real army and state-of-the-art air defense-systems.
If Iran chooses to respond militarily to Israel’s recent attack, I believe that Iran’s intent will be to inflict real damage on Israeli military and intelligence assets. Unlike the October 1 Iranian missile barrage, which was intended to prove to Israel and the West that it could defeat and penetrate Israeli air defense, the next Iranian strike will come with no advance notice. It will be up to Western intelligence assets to identify the attack as soon as it is launched.
What would I do if I was the commanding general of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Force? I would launch a two-wave missile attack. The first wave would consist of decoys intended to draw out Israeli’s air-defense system and force it to expend its limited supply of missiles. The second, which would be launched within minutes of the first, would target the headquarters of Unit 8200, Mossad Headquarters and the Nevatim Air Base.
If Israel thwarts that attack then Iran will have suffered a humiliating defeat and Israel would be emboldened to strike Iran again. If Iran succeeds, the Zionists will be in shock and enraged. This next phase will be very ugly and dangerous and could push the region into a full-scale war.
I discussed some of this today with Marcelo during our weekly conversation.